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Prediction Markets

(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Markets
Prediction markets
Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.
With a 56% chance of winning, according to the prediction market's traders, the former president has a 22-point lead over the incumbent, far bigger than what the polls indicat...
(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Jun 11, 2024 at 4:49 p.m. UTC
Jun 11, 2024
Prediction MarketsPolymarketDonald Trump
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 28: Former U.S. President Donald Trump sits in court during his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 28, 2024 in New York City. Donald Trump arrived for closing arguments in his hush money trial ahead of the jury deciding whether to make him the first criminally convicted former president and current White House hopeful in history. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
News Analysis
Analysis
Trump Conviction Barely Dents His Odds of Winning Election: Prediction Markets
Plus: Polymarket traders doubt Trump will go to prison; Kalshi bettors are at odds with the CME FedWatch poll on rate cuts.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 28: Former U.S. President Donald Trump sits in court during his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 28, 2024 in New York City. Donald Trump arrived for closing arguments in his hush money trial ahead of the jury deciding whether to make him the first criminally convicted former president and current White House hopeful in history. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Jun 3, 2024 at 11:29 p.m. UTC
Jun 3, 2024
AnalysisElection 2024Prediction MarketsPolymarketKalshi
Trump arrives at his NFT gala at Mar-a-Lago in May 2024 (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)
News Analysis
Analysis
Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote
Plus: how much longshot money was made betting on the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF?
Trump arrives at his NFT gala at Mar-a-Lago in May 2024 (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)
By Sam Reynolds
May 27, 2024 at 10:04 p.m. UTC
May 27, 2024
AnalysisElection 2024Prediction Markets
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Polymarket)
Finance
Prediction markets
Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket
The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding well over $70 million.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan (Polymarket)
By Marc Hochstein
May 14, 2024 at 2:00 p.m. UTC
May 14, 2024
Prediction MarketsFunding RoundsPolymarketPeter ThielVitalik Buterin
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 22: U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
News Analysis
Analysis
Trump and Biden Tied on Polymarket, Diverging From Polls
Other election contracts show a 35% chance of a Republican sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress and a 27% chance Democrats control the Senate after the election...
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 22: U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020 in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
May 13, 2024 at 2:10 p.m. UTC
May 13, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsElection 2024
Chairman Rostin Behnam's U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule Friday to ban certain event contracts in the U.S. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Policy
Regulations
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. derivatives regulator approved a proposed rule that punctuates a long-standing legal dispute between the agency and predictive markets platforms.
Chairman Rostin Behnam's U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a rule Friday to ban certain event contracts in the U.S. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
By Jesse Hamilton
May 10, 2024 at 4:11 p.m. UTC
May 10, 2024
RegulationsPrediction MarketsPredictItKalshiPolymarketCommodity Futures Trading Commission
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks during an event to launch the new Tesla Model X Crossover SUV on September 29, 2015 in Fremont, California. After several production delays, Elon Mush officially launched the much anticipated Tesla Model X Crossover SUV. The
Markets
Analysis
Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks during an event to launch the new Tesla Model X Crossover SUV on September 29, 2015 in Fremont, California. After several production delays, Elon Mush officially launched the much anticipated Tesla Model X Crossover SUV. The
By Sam Reynolds
May 6, 2024 at 12:34 p.m. UTC
May 6, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsTeslaElon MuskDonald TrumpPolymarketKalshiCFTC
Binance ex-CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao leaves the U.S. District Court in Seattle on Nov. 21, 2023. (David Ryder/Getty Images)
Markets
Analysis
Binance's CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet
Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it's already illegal in most U.S. states.
Binance ex-CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao leaves the U.S. District Court in Seattle on Nov. 21, 2023. (David Ryder/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Apr 29, 2024 at 2:15 p.m. UTC
Apr 29, 2024
AnalysisPrediction Markets
Columbia University President Minouche Shafik, left (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Markets
Analysis
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction...
Columbia University President Minouche Shafik, left (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Apr 22, 2024 at 2:23 p.m. UTC
Apr 22, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsPolymarketKalshi